Constructing stochastic models for investigation of dangerous events and accidents number in Baltic Sea region ports

The stochastic processes theory provides concepts and theorems that allow to build probabilistic models concerning incidents or (and) accidents. Counting processes are applied for modelling number of the dangerous events and accidents number in Baltic Sea region ports in the given time intervals. A crucial role in construction of the models plays a Poisson process and its generalizations. Three models of the incidents or (and) accidents number in the seaports are here constructed. Moreover some procedures of the model parameters identification and the computer procedures for anticipation of the dangerous events number are presented in the paper.