Modelling critical infrastructure accident consequences – an overall approach

In the paper the probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences (GMCIAC) including the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation models is proposed. Next, the methods of its parameters statistical identification are presented. Futher, the marine traffic across the world and sea accidents were observed. Their initiating events and environment threats coming from released chemical substances as well as environment degradations in the neighbourhood region of sea accident were analysed. Then, the process of initiating events, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation were analysed and their states are distinguised.