Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Sustainability of Agricultural Production in Ukraine

The aim of this paper was to determine the mechanisms of climate change impact on the yield of the main exportoriented crops in the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine. The study of the problem of changing the acreage of the main export-oriented crops was conducted according to the data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the time horizon 2000-2018 in the following order: first, the dynamics of the change of the acreage under corn, sunflower and wheat by the agro-climatic zones of Ukraine was analyzed; secondly, the trends of yield changes of these crops were investigated based on the increase in the difference in yields between the northern and southern zones; and, finally, the temporal and spatial expansion in the area of crop propagation were investigated by applying the panel regression method. The findings obtained indicate that the applied models confirm the assumption of the effects of climate change on crop yield changes and the zones expansion in the northern direction. If the country’s wheat area can be considered stable (variation is insignificant), then the corn and sunflower areas have grown steadily under the influence of increasing demand from national and world markets. At the same time, the growing acreage under corn and sunflower occurred in all climatic zones. Stable expansion of corn crops in the north direction in all three agroclimatic zones of Ukraine has been statistically confirmed. The article presents the findings of empirical analysis, which confirm that if the boundaries of soil and climatic zones change, the conditions of growing crops and their yield will consequently change as well. Thus, based on current global forecasts, the impact of weather on Ukraine’s agriculture will increase, and the most negative effects can be expected in the Steppe zone, where the likelihood of weather and climate risks increases, requiring the development of adaptation and mitigation measures as well as exploitation of new potential opportunities that are being opened. Studies have shown that there is an expansion in crops to the north and a change in their pattern, including a significant increase in the area under corn.