Mapy ryzyka systemu zaopatrzenia w wodę miasta Płocka

W artykule zawartym w niniejszej zbiorczej publikacji pt. "Mapy ryzyka funkcjonowania rozległych systemów technicznych" przedstawiono idę stosowania i rozpowszechniania technicznych map ryzyka. W niniejszym opracowaniu przedstawiony został przykład zastosowania niniejszych map dla systemu zaopatrzenia w wodę miasta Płocka.

Risk maps of technical systems functioning make up new approach to reliability issues. In applied so far approach they had a form of statistical analysis based on statistical data. However risk maps make up the dynamic image (like functioning technical arrangement) of technical risks connected with the given technical system. The technical risk map illustrates distribution (profile) of technical risks for the analysed technical arrangement, resulting from the exact analysis of individual technical risks caused by technical internal and external threats occurring in the given technical system. The example of technical risk maps application for the water supply system in Płock is presented in this paper. Analysis presented in the paper was based on six coefficients of expert assessment to which probabilities of their occurrence and costs of results caused by these coefficients (technical risks) were assigned. Applied coefficients are: - possibility of fracture or break of water pipe, - possibility damage on connections of water pipes, - possibility of corrosive damage of water pipe, - possibility of damage on armature of water pipe, - possibility of damage of fire hydrant, - other possibilities of damages not classified in above mentioned coefficients. Analysis was also based on the basic reliability coefficients of the water supply system which were presented in tabular form. Analyses of created during research risk maps showed that used during research expert coefficients (technical risks) not fully described technical threats influencing on the water supply system. However they allow to state: o technical risks directly connected with the water-supply network cause threats with quite big frequency and moderate financial results, o level of the risk of failure appearance, damage of the water supply system, diminishes along with increasing distance to key, integral elements of the system, such as: pumping stations, zone pumping stations, equalizing reservoirs, o enlargement of the level of failure appearance risk exists in water-supply rings with compact shape. This is a result of enlargement of technical armature occurrence thicknesses in the given area, water-supply pipes with bigger diameters cause growth of the level of failure appearance risk. This is caused by enlarged cost of failure effects removal on this type of water pipes, ring networks in relation to ramified networks are characterized with lower level of technical risk of failure appearance, which is caused by construction of these systems, sensitivity of risk map directly influences on possibility content-related evaluation of gained results