Wpływ emisji CO2 na koszty produkcji energii elektrycznej z węgla kamiennego

An important factor that will affect the price of electricity will be the cost associated with CO2 emissions. The costs of CO2 emission allowances will increase their share in the total cost of electricity production. Poland is a country in which the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation mix is very high. It dropped to the level of 83% in 2013. The largest share of coal (data for 2012) in the electricity generation mix in the world was in South Africa (94%). The global CO2 emissions continues to grow, even though there has been economic slowdown over the last 5 years. In 2012, the CO2 emissions reached a level of 34.5 billion tones. Since 1990, CO2 emissions increased by 52%. Until 2000, the growth was at the level of 1.1% per year, and since 2000 it was 2.6% per year. Coal combustion is responsible for 43% of CO2 emissions. In order to investigate the impact of the price of CO2 emission allowances on the cost of electricity generation, an analysis of the theoretical margin that generators may achieve (CDS spread) was carried out. This paper presents results of simulations that show how the theoretical margin (CDS) changes under assumed coal prices and electricity prices based on the assumed prices of CO2 emission allowances. The results also show what could be the maximum price of coal under given market conditions.