Areas of emergency maneuvers and the navigational risk of accidents in fairways due to ship technical failures determined by the ship movement simulation method

The identification of navigational risks of accidents in fairways is a basic principle for the construction or modernization of waterways in restricted waters and when the conditions of safe operation change. The estimation of navigational risk requires the evaluation of the consequences of accidents occurring in fairways: grounding, impact against a vertical shore, port/offshore structure or moored ship. When determining the consequences of these accidents, it is necessary to know the emergency maneuvering area and the speed of the ship at the time of the accident. The method of ship movement simulation in real time was used to determine the parameters of emergency maneuvering areas and the speed of vessels during the maneuvers. The results of the simulation experiment include full form vessels (bulk carriers, tankers) with a capacity ranging from 5,000 DWT to 100,000 DWT. The presented results of simulation tests enabled the evaluation of probability and consequences of ships’ accidents in fairways resulting from technical failures of ships’ steering equipment, allowing to assess the navigational risk for ships sailing through different types of fairways (approach channels, port entrances and inner port fairways).