Modelling the lateral distribution of ship traffic in traffic separation schemes

This paper presents the method used for the creation of ship traffic models in Southern Baltic Traffic Separation Schemes (TSS). The analysis of ship traffic was performed by means of statistical methods with the use of historical AIS data. The paper presents probabilistic models of ship traffic’s spatial distribution and its parameters. The results showed that there is a correlation between the standard deviation of traffic flow and TSS lane width that can be used in practical applications to ensure the safety of navigation; improve navigation efficiency, safety and risk analysis in given area, and for the creation of a general model of ship traffic flow.