An estimation method of message receiving probability for a satellite automatic identification system using a binomial distribution model

Automatic identification system (AIS) data are used to analyze vessels’ positions or maritime traffic. Recently, satellites are being adopted for gathering AIS data (satellite AIS). A satellite AIS can gather AIS data from all over the world, including the center of the ocean. However, because a satellite moves around the world every day, there is a very short window of time that the satellite can receive signals from some specific area. Furthermore, because a satellite AIS receives signals simultaneously from a wider area than a terrestrial AIS does, the satellite AIS has lower rate of signal reception, especially near vessel congested areas. This may cause many unrecognized vessels. For this situation, this paper proposes a new method to estimate the number of unrecognized vessels based on a binomial distribution model. With this method, we are able to estimate the number of unrecognized vessels just from satellite AIS data themselves.