Przyszłość integracji i systemu Unii Europejskiej. Próba prognozy

It is very important to try to predict the future development of the EU which led the following scenarios. The first of them, called the negative “hold-back scenario”, is based on the assumption that the process of transfer of the competences to take decisions to the institutions of the EU and the Communities reaching certain point will be held back, and then it will undergo stagnation. The second scenario, called “the imperative one”, takes into account the necessity of further, gradual concentration of the integration power caused by inactivity of supervisory authorities of member states and bigger effectiveness of decision making in integrated community. We can include here also further, parallel development of the model of European integration which would be based on intergovernmental cooperation and supranational method. The third scenario was based on such fundamentals as: - transparency of institutional decision making systems; – acceptance of the EU by the citizens; - more personalized integration activities; – strengthening of the democratic legitimization (e.g. connection of the institutional development with the process of the expansion); – looking for compromises and common preferences. The element which binds subjects of integration in realization of this scenario is conviction that it is necessary to intensify the political union. Continuing process of corrections and reforms in the system, the EU must still have multilayer (multilevel) character, joining not only supranational and international elements, but also national ones (the inclusion of national parliaments). This unification must have not atomizing but synergetic character, and it should be based on mutual penetration of methods, rules, mechanisms and institutions. As a final result, the authorities and institutions of the EU, and its procedures must become more effective. The realization of this scenario will increase the chance for the future EU not to lose the ability to shape its internal environment and to influence effectively on the international arena. The Assembly of Europe and the draft of the Treaty for the European Constitution confirm the attempt to realize this scenario. The scope of changes can only be compared to the dismantling of the building and then its reconstruction, reconstruction which would be based upon what is left from the building, using new techniques and elements. Bu before, the EU expanded by new member states will undergo, the most difficult in its history, process of regaining balance. Disorder in the system, connected with the expansion of the Union, difficult economic and complicated international situation, and controversial bills included in the draft of the Constitution Treaty accumulated, which led to the fiasco of the first stage of intergovernmental conference in 2003. Due to this fact, the return to the balance in the system will be more complex and take more time. As a result we will have a new quality of European integration which will match, both in form and content, the challenges of modern world. The decisons which are taken by the EU today cannot diminish its potential in the future. The Communities and then the EU have always been able to start debates about its shape. Aiming at the “final” reform of the EU is difficult, actually unrealistic undertaking. It is inevitable that we should continue the concept begun by the Common European Act and the European Union Treaty from Maastricht. This concept was based on permanent and evolutionary change helping to keep the right dynamics of the process of European integration.