Forecast changes for heat and cold stress in Warsaw in the 21st century, and their possible influence on mortality risk

This paper presents the results of research dealing with forecast changes in the frequency of occurrence of heat and cold stress in Warsaw (Poland) in the years 2001–2100, and the possible influence these may exert on mortality risk. Heat and cold stress were assessed by reference to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTC I), for which values were calculated using meteorological data derived from the MPI-M-RE MO regional climate model, at a with spatial resolution of 25 × 25 km. The simulations used boundary conditions from the EC HAMP5 Global Climate Model, for SRES scenario A1B. Predictions of mortality rate were in turn based on experimental epidemiological data from the period 1993–2002. Medical data consist of daily numbers of deaths within the age category above 64 years (TM64+). It proved possible to observe a statistically significant relationship between UTC I and mortality rates, this serving as a basis for predicting possible changes in mortality in the 21st century due to changing conditions as regards heat and cold stress.