Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis of Congested Marine Traffic Environment – An Application Using Marine Traffic Simulation System

Difficulty of sailing is quite subjective matter. It depends on various factors. Using Marine Traffic Simulation System (MTSS) developed by Osaka University this challenging subject is discussed. In this system realistic traffic flow including collision avoidance manoeuvres can be reproduced in a given area. Simulation is done for southward of Tokyo Bay, Strait of Singapore and off‐Shanghai area changing traffic volume from 5 or 50 to 150 or 200% of the present volume. As a result, strong proportional relation between near‐miss ratio and traffic density per hour per sailed area is found, independent on traffic volume, area size and configuration. The quantitative evaluation index of the difficulty of sailing, here called risk rate of the area is defined using thus defined traffic density and near‐miss ratio.