Reconstruction of geomagnetic event as observed in Northern Adriatic region and Its correlation with GPS single-frequency positioning deviations

Space weather effects are generally recognized as causes of degradation of satellite positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services. We analyze GPS position estimation error during a geomagnetic storm, focusing on manifestations of geomagnetic processes. The position estimation error was analyzed in terms of GPS coordinates’ deviations (latitude, longitude and height) from their reference values. The storm’s impact was studied in the Northern Adriatic region where GPS observables from two Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) reference stations were analysed. Geomagnetic indices were elaborated, comprising readings from interplanetary, magnetospheric and geomagnetic observatories. Total Electron Content (TEC) on both stations was computed using dual frequency GPS pseudorange observables. The experiment was to reconstruct the movement of geomagnetic disturbances entering the geospace, reaching the earth’s surface. The aim was to correlate possible space weather manifestation on satellite positioning performance in terms of positioning error. Regularities in changes in positioning deviations were identified with relation to influential indices. The research offered a possibility of experimental positioning deviations assessment as well as forecasting. Evaluation of generated rudimentary Classification and Regression Trees (CART) models showed that the risk of satellite positioning errors could be assessed and predicted considering absolutes, as well as changes in values of geomagnetic indices. During the research process, several activities emerged as preferable continuation of the work, with the aim of further development of predictive models and the complement of space weather scenarios and their consequences on navigational systems. Along with summarized results, they are outlined in the conclusion section.