Transformacja polskiego systemu partyjnego po 2005 roku

It can hardly be denied that the process of forming party system is long-term, complex and multidimensional one. The features of the “systemness”, e.g. stability, durability and predictability, may be achieved only after several years of democratic development. Thus, the analysis of the changes which take place in short period may give limited effects because of rapid changes of most frequently used quantitative parameters of the party system. From the other side, the comparison of the results of two or more consecutive parliamentary elections allows us to describe and to interpret some trends in political development. The aim of this article is to show the changes in the structure of political competition and in the number and size of the main parties, affecting the level of fractionalization and concentration of Polish party system between 2005 and 2007. By using traditional measures of stabilization of party systems on electoral, parliamentary and governmental arenas, I have tried to answer the question whether are there the symptoms of stabilization of Polish party system after 2005, or not. Comparing effective number of parties, the level of fractionalization and concentration, and the modes of forming the cabinet I have come to conclusion that, contrary to 2005 parliamentary election, there are some signs of party system stabilization in its two dimensions: representativeness and effectiveness. The structure of political scene seems to be more stable: no relevant party has appeared on it since 2001, the number of parties represented in the Sejm has diminished, the level of support for the strongest parties has increased and the electoral volatility has been lower in 2007 than in 2005. What is new after 2005 is that the structure of competition has changed. Two strong, conservative right-wing groupings have been main contenders and the post-communist Left is, for the time being, practically excluded from the struggle for power. The further stabilization of party system depends on capability to maintain this pattern of political competition.