Using Information Models to Formalize Group Expertise Based on Subjective Estimates

The paper analyzes the construction of aggregated estimates (of processes or process parameters) on the basis of expert opinion. A three-level information model is constructed, describing the connection between criteria, indicators and their scaling constants. Coefficients of concordance of expert opinion are also discussed, as well as estimates of the expert competence and knowledge in the analyzed field (or regarding a given criterion). The procedure to find the aggregated estimate is described in nine steps, which consecutively construct the model of the estimate and its components, i.e. indicators, weight coefficients, criteria, scaling constants.