Precipitation estimation and nowcasting at IMGW-PIB (SEiNO system)

A System for the Estimation and Nowcasting of Precipitation (SEiNO) is being developed at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Its aim is to provide the national meteorological and hydrological service with comprehensive operational tools for real-time high-resolution analyses and forecasts of precipitation fields. The system consists of numerical models for: (i) precipitation field analysis (estimation), (ii) precipitation nowcasting, i.e., extrapolation forecasting for short lead times, (iii) generation of probabilistic nowcasts. The precipitation estimation is performed by the conditional merging of information from telemetric rain gauges, the weather radar network, and the Meteosat satellite, employing quantitative quality information (quality index). Nowcasts are generated by three numerical models, employing various approaches to take account of different aspects of convective phenomena. Probabilistic forecasts are computed based on the investigation of deterministic forecast reliability determined in real time. Some elements of the SEiNO system are still under development and the system will be modernized continuously to reflect the progress in measurement techniques and advanced methods of meteorological data processing.