This paper analyses the effects of fiscal policies upon agriculture and industry in
Ukraine, with the SVAR model using quarterly data for the 2001–2016 period. The
results indicate a positive effect of the government spending on both agricultural
production and industrial output, while an increase in the government revenue is of
the same expansionary impact for the latter only. Among other results, there is a
weak negative short-lived spillover from agriculture to industry, with no causality
running on the reverse. As agricultural production in Ukraine is associated with a
higher level of government spending in the short run, a direction of causality seems
to be just the opposite for industrial output. Both agriculture and industry bring
about higher budget revenues in the short run, but for the latter this effect is lagged
and more persistent. Controlling for fiscal policy effects, the nominal (real)
exchange rate depreciation seems to be expansionary for industrial output. For
agriculture, a nominal exchange rate depreciation is restrictionary in the short run,
with an expansionary effect in the long run (however, this result is not supported in
specification with the real exchange rate). Several implications of fiscal policy
effects are discussed.
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