Przewidywane zaopatrzenie ludzi w starszym wieku w usługi w zakresie podstawowego leczenia

In this article, there are presented results of the estimates made by means of a peculiar method of future projections based on coefficients of intensity with which people visit health care centres spontaneously and frequency during a year with which they seek medical advice. The studies encompassed among others district health care centres. Statistical observations allow to conclude that the necessity of ensuring proper medical care for elderly people in these district centres does not ensue from the fact of Lodz inhabitants’ aging alone but also from hanges in their structure according to age and sex, as well as education (providing other exogenous factors remain unchanged or are excluded). Equally significant is also the knowledge of inclinations to benefit from services of a specific type offered by the health care centres under survey. The projection compiled in th is way concerns the future demand for medical services expressed by the respondents or disclosed needs and not real magnitudes. This means that the projections are substantially underestimated. Nevertheless, in the analyzed perspective period, there should be expected a considerable - reaching about 50 per cent increase in the number of medical consultations and physicians due exclusively to changes in the number and structure of older population in Lodz according to age. These changes are quite differentiated in particular boundary years of the projection. In the projected period, the rate of changes in the number of ambulatory medical con sulta tio ns and home visits provided for elderly people will be spread unevenly. Moreover, the incrementin the number of home visits made by adistrict physician will be higher than the increment in the number of consultations provided in health care centres. In both cases, the number of medical consultations provided for men will increase much more than that for women.