Płaca minimalna a liczba młodych pracujących. Związki przyczynowe i prognozy wariantowe

The minimum wage is the wage policy instrument that affects, among others, labor costs and elimination of negative forms of competition. In political-economic and scientific circles there is an ongoing discussion on the legitimacy of raising the minimum wage and its impact on employment. The main aim of this study is to determine the impact of changes in the minimum wage on labor demand of young people in Poland. It has been realized through three specific aims. On the basis of causality test it has been shown that both the level of the minimum wage and its relation to average earnings are the Granger causes of the number of working people aged 15-29 in Poland in the period 1990-2013. The results of the econometric model estimation showed, ceteris paribus, the negative impact of both these variables on the demand for labor of young people, with the minimum wage effect being lagged by one year. The variant forecasts until 2020, with different assumptions about the minimum wage, indicate the largest number of working if the minimum wage does not exceed 40% of the average earnings, while maintaining the current growth rate of the minimum wage. A noticeable decrease in employment is yet expected in the case of a large increase in this wage, regardless of its relation to the average earnings.