Water resources of Kazakhstan in conditions of uncertainty

The exceptionally high spatial-temporal variability of the river runoff and the significance of its transboundary component considerably worsen the problem of the water supply of the republic. Due to the disadvantageous geographical location in the lower reaches of transboundary river basins, the Republic of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on water economy activities taking place in neighbouring countries. In the article the modern change of the resources of river runoff in Kazakhstan, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic influences is considered. For the assessment of the impact of economic activities on the river runoff and changes in climatic-related runoff, the complex of integral methods was used, and appropriate methodologies were developed. The obtained results of the modern influence of a complex of factors, as well as their significance for the future (till 2030), can be used for the development of scientifically based solutions for sustainable management and protection of water resources. An assessment of the anthropogenic activity of this study shows that the water resources of the river runoff of the Republic of Kazakhstan have decreased by 16.0 km3∙y-1. According to our forecasts, there will be a further decrease in the water resources of the republic due to the expected decrease in transboundary flow to 87.1 km3∙y-1 by 2030, in dry years less than 50.0 km3∙y-1. We propose a set of measures to prevent the negative impact of possible reduction of river runoff resources in the future in the water basins of Kazakhstan.